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Statement on upcoming elections in Equatorial Guinea

Amnesty International, Equatorial Guinea Justice, and Human Rights Watch have issued a joint statement on the upcoming Equatoguinean elections. The election environment appears so textbook-dictatorship it’s almost not interesting. I’m sure there is heterogeneity amongst these authoritarian electoral strategies, but to someone who doesn’t know much about this it seems pretty cliche to me. One interesting thing to note: there is a fear that foreign journalists might get denied visas. But Americans don’t need visas! So American journalists should be able to enter the country without trouble. It’s not very expensive to get there either. Go!

The May 26 elections will include voting for local council members and a new parliament, including for the first time 55 senators (Obiang appoints an additional 15 senators).

It doesn’t matter what happens on May 26. There is simply no way the elections can be considered free based on the current state of the media (virtually no way to hear or see any message that criticizes the government in the country except via the internet); the ruling party’s ability to use state resources for the campaign; the fear that you and your family won’t get government jobs if you publicly support either of the two parties that are not part of the ruling coalition etc. etc. etc.

Some highlights from the report:

The country has no independent and impartial body to oversee the electoral process or consider election-related complaints. The National Election Commission is controlled by the ruling party and is headed by the interior minister, a prominent member of the governing party.

[...]

[Election] observers will be permitted to travel to witness the vote only “in accordance with the program established for that purpose by the government” (arts. 11, 12, and 18).

Their [election observers'] ability to speak to the “official news media” about their “activities” during voting is subject to approval by the Information Ministry (art. 21).

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Bill Gates again calls vaccination in northern Nigeria a technical problem

Bill Gates has once again revealed that he does not understand the determinants of low vaccine coverage in northern Nigeria. Though he uses words like federal government and state government, ultimately he is defining a technical problem, not a political problem. (See my previous post on this here.) Here he explains to Ezra Klein why Somalia has higher vaccination coverage than northern Nigeria:

Well, in Somalia they’ve given up using the government. The money goes through the NGOs. Whereas in Nigeria they’ve designed a system where the federal government buys the vaccines, the state government provides the electricity, and the one level down below that provides the salaries. It’s just a bad design. You know, the north of India has very poor vaccination rates, so we picked a state up there with 80 million people and we drove it from 30 percent to 80 percent. But they had a really good chief health minister and the federal government was providing lots of money and lots of good technocrats, so the skills were there, as long as you employed them in the right kind of system.

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Africa Confidential on Ibrahim Bah and a ridiculous Italian businessman

Africa Confidential turns its focus this week to Ibrahim Bah, who was a key financial conduit between the RUF and Charles Taylor during the Liberian and Sierra Leonean wars [the articles are gated]. Despite being under a UN travel ban and asset freeze, Bah travels in and out of Sierra Leone frequently and conducts business unencumbered in Freetown.  In 2008 he had a gold and diamond trading company based out of an office very close to a police station in Freetown. He is also involved in a mercenary firm that has tried unsuccessfully to engage in recent conflicts in Cote d’Ivoire and Libya. Sierra Leonean officials turn a blind eye to all of this.

The highlight of the Bah articles, however, is the connection between Bah and an Italian businessman named Vittorio Narciso Ruello. Bah appears to have screwed over Ruello repeatedly, taking hundreds of thousands of dollars to buy diamonds but never delivering the diamonds.

In a statement to the police, Bah claimed he was not defrauding Ruello but suffering from the ups and downs of an uncertain business.

The best part, though, is that Ruello paid Bah to make him a Sierra Leonean honorary consul to Guinea Bissau (a la The Ambassador). This is even more outrageous than the Central African Republic attempt as you can’t even be a Sierra Leonean citizen unless you are of “Negro African descent” (for more on this see here and here). Anyways, Bah didn’t come through; it didn’t work. So Ruello went to the Sierra Leonean police to complain of being cheated!

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At least 10 of 27 Borno state local governments controlled by Boko Haram

Tim Cocks, who seems to have gone to Baga this month, on Boko Haram and Borno state:

The Islamists now control at least 10 of the 27 local council areas in Borno state, Nigeria’s most remote northeastern region on the edge of the Sahara and a relic of one of Africa’s oldest medieval Islamic empires, security sources there say.

One says the real figure could be closer to 20, as local councillors fearing assassination have fled…

On the aftermath of Baga:

A military convoy rumbles into the remote fishing settlement of Baga, on the shores of Lake Chad, scene of fighting last month that killed dozens of people, many of them civilians.

As it weaves past the charred remains of ruined houses, locals shout abuse at soldiers in the Hausa language.

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Americanah, or the elite rationality of nameless medicine

I just finished Chimamanda Ngozi Adichie’s new book, Americanah. It was at points a very fun read, a novel through which a young woman describes how she sees America having grown up in Nigeria, and then how she sees Lagos after more than a decade in America. It is a book about race in America, and at points an extremely angry book about race in America. You can almost hear Adichie ranting in exacerbation through the pages after someone has told her that America is post-racial.

Some unrelated and lighter excerpts:

[Advice from a member of the African Students Association to a recent arrival:] “Please do not go to Kmart and buy twenty pairs of jeans because each costs five dollars. The jeans are not running away. They will be there tomorrow at an even more reduced price.”

[...]

Nollywood may be melodramatic, but life in Nigeria is very melodramatic.

[...]

Esther cam back with transparent packets of pills, on which instructions, but no names, were written in a crabbed handwriting…”Somebody should let the health minister know that ordinary Nigerians go to see a doctor and the doctor gives them unnamed medicines. This can kill you. How will anybody know what you have already taken, or what you shouldn’t take if you’re already taking something else?” “Ahn-ahn, but that one is a small problem: they do it so that you don’t buy the medicine from someone else.”

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Morning musings on survey question design

This morning I’ve been Googling for sample survey questions that measure concepts that lots of academics are interested in. For example, I want some questions on my survey to measure social capital, and see no need to completely recreate the wheel. I found this World Bank document with ideas.  One sample question:

Which members of the community participate most in solving the issues facing the community? (then it asks for responses based on employment status, age etc.)

I’ve also been trying to incorporate questions from the World Bank Enterprise surveys for the purpose of comparability. For example, here’s one question I’m interested in from the Enterprise surveys:

To what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statement: Government officials’ interpretations of the laws and regulations affecting this establishment are consistent and predictable

Last month, however, I pre-tested a lot of questions like these with Nigerians, including specifically a version of this question about predictability. Uniformly, they did not work. Nigerians do not like to answer hypothetical and vague questions like these. “What laws and regulations?” every respondent asked. I am certain if I asked the social capital question respondents would say, “What issues are you talking about?”

Sometimes vague questions are too vague for anyone to provide an answer. But sometimes they are answerable. If one specified a level of government, the question about predictability is answerable. But, to generalize, Nigerians don’t talk like this. They are used to direct and specific questions.

As a result, questions in my survey about government predictability, for example, will be extremely specific. This will improve response validity, but will not allow me to compare responses to Enterprise surveys in Albania or Gabon. Sad.

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“Vehicular religiosities” and “auto-spiritualities”

Excerpts from an article on the connection between religion and cars in Nigeria, by Ebenezer Obadare, a sociologist at University of Kansas: [hat tip to Cat]

In Lagos, Nigeria, though, the social and physical circumstances which enable communing while commuting seem radically different. When traffic grinds to a complete halt as is its wont in the city (a normal Lagos “go slow” can last between three and five hours), the commuter faces the severest test of all: what to do with the suddenly abundant time at his or her disposal. In-traffic communion often unfolds in this situation of baffled boredom; where an ordinarily desperate situation becomes a moment for sustained reflection, and anarchic time becomes an opportunity for “quiet time.”

[...]

As fatalities from car accidents have grown, prayers for protection from the dangers of the road have become louder and persistent. The prayer, “Ka ma rin ni ojo ti ebi n p’ona” (May we not travel on the very day that the road is famished) carries an added resonance against a backdrop of endemic auto-mortality. The unusually high frequency of road traffic accidents is attested to by the following anecdote from Kathryn Rhine in a presentation in 2011, who reports that “during a recent fieldwork among HIV-positive persons in Nigeria, patients would insist that their virus was not going to kill them; rather, they would likely die in a car accident.”

Speaking of Kathryn Rhine, an anthropologist at University of Kansas, she has a new blog with thoughts from her fieldwork, which is on how Nigerians understand car accidents. She calls her project “Cultures of Collision.”

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With all due respect, I strongly disagree with myself

A seemingly ordinary footnote, until one realizes that North is one of the paper’s authors.

Mancur Olson’s (1993) roving and stationary bandits and Douglass North’s (1981) revenue maximizing monarchs are at the center of the two most persuasive attempts to explain the interrelated behavior of economies and polities. With all due respect, we submit that modeling the state as a single actor is inherently flawed. Unless we understand the dynamics of relationships within the organization of the state, we can never understand the interrelationship of politics and economics.

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MTN meets public health, kind of

One of the small pleasures of Lagos was the free trial subscription I accepted from MTN for daily health tips via SMS. They were always about honey. Until they were always about lemon. Some highlights:

Honey is referred to as “Yogavahi” since it has a quality of penetrating the deepest tissues of the body when it is used with other herbal preparations.

All honey is antibacterial, because the bees add an enzyme that makes hydrogen peroxide.

[etc. etc. etc.]

There are many health benefits of lemons, known for centuries. The 2 biggest are lemons strong antibacterial, antiviral n immune-boosting properties.

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I heart Lagos

From the Lagos State Government Facebook page:

lagos

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